A widely followed crypto analyst is warning traders that historical precedent suggests a challenging few months ahead for digital assets.
In a new interview with David Lin, crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen says there is reason to expect that the third quarter of this year could be bearish for crypto.
-->“So, kind of going into this year, I thought January 20th would mark a high – at least a local high – and my view was basically that if the 2024 high held as support during the pullback, then Bitcoin could go to all-time highs again. And we held at like $70K. We went to like $74K. The high from 2024 was like $73.8K. So, we have gone to new all-time highs.
We have not seen total market cap follow that, though. Total market cap is still at a lower high, so we are seeing some divergences there. I’d really like to see confirmation of that. I think that we’re likely going to see a pullback in the third quarter. We also saw a similar pattern in 2023, 2024, and 2022. It just seems to be a common thing.”
However, Cowen also recognizes the possibility that crypto may not follow historical trends and instead continue to rise as the year progresses.
“Obviously, I could be wrong – there’s always a chance we just go up into Q3. But one of the reasons I think there’ll be a pullback is, if you look at some of the macro data, initial claims tend to go up around the summertime. They went up in the last couple of years. So, I think you’ll probably see initial claims start to tick a little bit higher. That could, you know, that could put some uncertainty in the market.
I don’t really think initial claims are an issue until they’re printing 300K. I think that’s kind of where it becomes more problematic, but we haven’t seen that yet.”
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