Bitcoin (BTC) is holding steady at around $103,000, but the calm could be the eye of the storm.

With volatility compressing and the CME gap still looming like a ghost at $91,970, crypto analysts are torn on whether BTC is headed for glory at $175,000 or prepping for a brutal fakeout.

The Bull Case: $175K or Bust?

Egrag Crypto isn’t mincing words. In a recent X post, the analyst, more well-known for his takes on XRP, proclaimed that Bitcoin going to $175,000 was “Solid as a Rock!” According to him, that price region is BTC’s “cycle top,” referencing historical EMA breakouts and a 10X extension from 2017’s $20,000 peak.

The crypto trader pointed out that, in the past, Bitcoin pumped hard whenever it closed above the 21-week EMA. His breakdown: Pump 1, 60; pump 2, 170; pump 3, 75. That’s an average jump of 101, which Egrag applied directly to the market’s post-April 21 momentum to reach the $175,000 price level. “Men lie, women lie, numbers don’t,” he quipped.

However, not everyone is dancing. Investor Daan Crypto Trades is painting a sobering picture of weekend stagnation and low volatility, with BTC locked in a tight $101,000 to $105,000 range. “We won’t see that much action from Bitcoin for now,” he shrugged, citing low liquidity over the weekend and a possible breakout looming.

The Bearish Wrinkles

Still, an unfilled CME gap between $91,970 and $92,520 feels like the real twist. Some traders believe BTC must revisit this zone before any meaningful climb can happen.

“From the current price, BTC would need to drop around 12 to close this gap,” Egrag Crypto wrote. However, he predicted there was more likelihood of a rally through the $130,000 to $140,000 Fibonacci levels before a 33 correction, followed by a final push to his fabled $175,000.

At the time of this writing, BTC was still 4.9 below its all-time high set in January. Its latest price represents a slight 0.4 dip in the last seven days, but it has still outperformed the broader crypto market’s 1.6 drop in the same period.

The next move is critical: will the flagship crypto blast off to $175,000 as the permabulls promise, or will the CME gap drag it down first?