Bitcoin (BTC) could be primed for a surge to $160,000, according to a key on-chain metric that foreshadowed two other record-breaking rallies.

This bullish outlook is emerging even as BTC battles volatility near $108,000, a psychological threshold tested amid geopolitical turbulence and conflicting accumulation patterns.

The Accumulation Blueprint

In his latest analysis, market watcher Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holder (LTH) to Short-Term Holder (STH) ratio shows a very familiar accumulation pattern.

According to him, some of BTC’s most explosive rallies between 2023 and 2025 were preceded by sustained LTH/STH growth. One of the runs, which started when Bitcoin was trading around the $28,000 level, saw the king cryptocurrency go all the way to $60,000. Another LTH/STH ratio uptick provided enough momentum to push BTC from $60,000 to $100,000.

Adler has noted the same signal flashing at the $100,000 level:

“Today, at the $100K mark, we again see sustained growth in the LTH/STH ratio,” noted the expert. “This accumulation phase could last 4-8 weeks, after which, by analogy with previous cycles, a powerful upward reversal is likely.”

Applying a conservative 1.6x multiplier to Bitcoin’s current price, he projects a $160,000 target by the end of August.

Giving more credence to the outlook, prominent trader Titan of Crypto identified a bull flag formation on BTC’s daily charts, suggesting a potential breakout to $137,000. He added that the MACD indicator was also on the verge of a bullish crossover, a move often viewed as a trigger for price momentum shifts.

Technical and historical indicators also bolster Adler’s thesis. For instance, the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart places the crypto asset firmly in the “BUY” zone, a scenario comparable to November 2020, just prior to it setting off on a 450 ROI surge, and May 2017, before the same metric boomed 1,400.

Market Outlook

This activity coincides with broader geopolitical and market forces. On June 25, Bitcoin briefly touched $108,000 following remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump on easing tensions in the Middle East.

Prices have since cooled slightly, with BTC changing hands at around $107,653 at the time of this writing. While a modest 0.7 gain in the last 24 hours, the price reflects a 1.8 monthly dip.

Still, the asset’s nearly 3 uptick in the last seven days puts its performance slightly ahead of the rest of the crypto market, which only managed to go up 1.6 in that period. However, the sideways movement saw BTC underperform versus tech stocks like Nvidia (+9.15) and Oracle (+32.5), raising questions about capital rotation.